4204, if the results hold up, passes.
I mean, wow.
We might even avoid a machine recount.
I had hopes, but no expectations, for a turnaround. I called the initial result "apparent," in slim hopes that tallies would change as more votes came in.
And they did.
Co-blogger Ryan, who had been cautiously upbeat about HJR 4204's (Simple Majorities for Levies) chances, is pretty upset at its apparent failure:
[And] before anyone tries to tell me I don't get it, don't even start. I own my own home. My wife is self-employed, and we get absolutely reamed every April. I've got a special needs daughter who's eating up a lot of my discretionary income.I'm a little less pessimistic. I blame...
But I still believe that every vote should count 1-to-1. When your no vote is worth 50% more than my yes vote, that's giving you more power in a democracy than I have, and that's unfair. The people of Washington had a chance to fix that. Apparently, they prefer minority rules.
This can't be seen as anything other than a total repudiation of Washington students and teachers.
- Rising property values, combined with the timing on the property tax assessments, which in the annually measured counties occur so close to the election you can smell tax revolt in the alder-smoked autumn breeze. (The initial rise and fall of the other tax-related initiatives and resolutions supports this thesis.)
- An ineffectual legislature that forces education proponents to rely on litigation and levies to raise cash in an inequitable system invented before I was born, and little changed since then, giving HJ 4204 opponents the ability to say, "Sure, I support education, but I want the legislature to get its rear in gear, even if troubled rural districts suffer in the meantime."
- Education pundits--myself?--for thinking that a successful media campaign translates into sufficient votes.
- The inequity itself. Voters who live in consistently supportive districts might not see the problem for what it is. Voters in troubled districts don't seem to mind.
Doesn't make it hurt less.
Update: The latest vote tally, statewide, claims there are about 490,000 ballots still out there. HJ 4204's "No" tally has slipped to a 30,000 vote lead, from about 60,000 earlier. Paper-thin hope?
Update: The results, as of 4:10 on November 11, are closer than ever--only about 2700 votes separate Approve and Reject. Maybe this one's gonna pull a Gregoire.