the budget crisis gets personal

Governor Gregoire's 2009 budget proposal includes a six percent across-the-board cut at the community college level. Since last summer, my wife had been working at Pierce College in Lakewood, assisting adult students in their transition from GED programs to a college education. We had held off major financial changes this winter, knowing that although she had survived the first round of cuts, her job status in June was iffy.

Turns out it was even iffier than we thought. Yesterday she was given her walking papers, since her position has been eliminated as of January 16th. She's over the initial shock, frustrated by having to look for new employment, more irritated than anything, as is her soon-to-be-slammed supervisor.

Our plan to help the U.S. out of the recession was to purchase a home in December. Not anymore. But we can't complain too loudly. We can scale back our dreams a bit, pinch a few more pennies, and weather the storm. And I still have a job in the Olympia School District.

For now.

the triumph of Ruth Bennett

Remember Ruth Bennett? She was the Libertarian who ran against Gregoire and Rossi back in 2004. She earned far more votes than the margin of victory, and probably ultimately swung the election for Gregoire, but disappeared off the political radar after that.

Turns out she had been here all along.

Gregoire told The Olympian's editorial board Friday that some proposed cuts — such as closing a youth-offender camp at Naselle and shuttering a Yakima facility for the developmentally disabled — were "an opportunity" to do the right thing that might not be politically possible in richer times.

Both facilities are under-used by departments that have too little demand to justify the operations.

"So it is a time to rethink government," Gregoire said.

The governor also said she has asked her Cabinet leaders to look again at how they do business, and she said she wants to look at the state's 400 boards and commissions with an eye toward picking out only boards that are essential.

To the eye and ear she's Chris Gregoire, but the discerning mind is not fooled by the clever disguise.

Congratulations, Ruth Bennett, on winning when it really counted.

everybody hurts: the Gregoire Budget

Governor Gregoire has released her budget recommendations for the upcoming legislative session. Cue Michael Stipe, singing on a freeway:

Gov. Christine Gregoire released an austere state budget proposal this morning that slashes more than $3.5 billion in funding for public schools, higher education, social services and other areas to help close the biggest budget shortfall in state history.

Gregoire proposes filling the gap, projected at more than $5 billion, by making scores of cuts and using untapped pots of money, including $600 million from the state rainy-day fund.

In addition, the governor is banking that the federal government will send Washington at least $1 billion as part of an economic stimulus package.

Among the cuts proposed by Gregoire: $682 million in pay increases for state workers and teachers; $500 million in health care for children, the poor and the disabled; and $178 million in funding for Initiative I-728, which was approved by voters in 2000 to reduce class sizes in public schools.

The proposed budget also would change how state pensions are funded, and reduce contributions to the worker-retirement programs by $400 million over the next two years. No cut was too small to pursue. The governor proposes closing 13 state parks to save $5.2 million, shuttering the visitors center at the state Capitol to save $1.7 million and eliminating toll-free numbers to the state Department of Revenue to save $260,000.

The governor said the cuts were necessary, but that she "hates" the budget and expects legislators and lobbyists will as well. "There's something in there for everybody not to like."

I'd strongly recommend reading the entire recommendation [pdf] to get a sense of the uphill battle ahead.

I'll post analysis later this week.

(Oh, and it almost goes without saying that "advocacy groups" are upset.)

Added: And then there's Ryan's take.

close a few loopholes and balance the budget?

$53 billion in tax loopholes offer a tantalizing option for Governor Gregoire: raising taxes without technically raising taxes.

If state lawmakers wanted to raise money by closing tax exemptions, there are 567 to choose from. Taken together, the tax breaks cut $53 billion in potential revenues that the state might have received and $45 million more to local governments.

Of those exemptions, 147 of have been added to the tax rolls since the 2001 legislative session.

Of the grand total, 158 were exemptions to the retail sales and use taxes. These include exemptions on sales of food, medicines and the like, which are worth $30 billion in the 2007-09 budget cycle, according to the Department of Revenue's Tax Exemptions 2008 guide. One hundred and three others are property-tax exemptions worth $9 billion.

Of course, every loophole has a lobbyist, meaning that the legislature, until now, has closed hardly any of 'em.

Most tax-repeal recommendations from 2007 were ignored by the Legislature. Those included elimination of a $2 million break for horse racing and $2 million for club membership dues and fees. Also ignored was a recommendation to re-examine a $47 million break given to nonprofit hospitals and $17 million to nonsectarian organizations.

Lawmakers did manage to get rid of one exemption in 2007. That was a temporary tax break for beef producers enacted after the mad-cow disease scare a few years ago, and lawmakers did not extend its life.

Anyhow, The Olympian predicts a shocking budget recommendation from the Governor to match this week's Arctic Blast.

She is scheduled to announce a deep-cutting budget proposal Thursday that could lop $1 billion from K-12 schools, cut jobs or reduce the hours for many of Washington's 110,000 state employees, and shear away big parts of the social safety net.

Gregoire swore off tax increases while on the campaign trail this year, and the recently re-elected Democrat has shown no sign of relenting on that point — even with a budget shortfall she hints could hit $6 billion for the 2009-11 cycle. Even she says it will be "ugly" and that she will hate it.

How long until we're on a four-day school week?

Did Teachers Win the Election for Gregoire?

Probably not, but they did get a shoutout from Kelly Evans, Gregoire's campaign manager:

Women’s groups, the environmental community, labor organizations, the education community – everyone was focused and took nothing for granted. And we saw the results in our polling. Four weeks before the election, we were losing public school parents by 11 points – two weeks prior, we were winning by a point. Same is true for union households, a move from +12 to +27 in just three weeks. Add this to the voices of Native Americans, children’s and health care advocates, leaders from communities of color, veterans’ organizations and law enforcement groups all organizing and communicating about Gov. Gregoire’s record of results for the people of Washington.

The WEA-Eastern affiliate office in Spokane had a great, great phonebanking operation set up that turned out nearly 18,000 phone calls for the Gregoire campaign, and we were only one of dozens across the state. Dino only won Spokane County by 8,000 votes, which wasn't nearly the margin he needed to make up for the hole he was facing in King County, where Gregoire won by 230,000. The road to office may run through King, but you've got to run a statewide campaign, too, and the Governor did that very effectively.

(via Brad Shannon at the Olympian)

Bergeson trailing; Gregoire lead seems solid

This is a bit of a surprise to me: even though not-Bergeson won the primary, I was never sure that not-Bergesons would line up for Randy Dorn. Turns out they have.

However, with the most populous county still tabulating results, and with a slight lead for Bergeson in that county, she may still eke out a win.

In the other widely-watched race, Christine Gregoire seems to have locked up a victory over Dino Rossi. Snohomish and King counties, the bulk of the outstanding votes, are solid Gregoire.

the predictive value of the 2008 Washington State primary

Somewhat silly predictions aside, it's time to look at the results of the primary. A few observations.

1. Voter turnout was way below average in King County--around 20%, compared to 27%+ statewide--which may have artificially inflated Rossi's overall performance. Rossi's camp is probably praying this trend continues into the general election, since King County went 60% for Gregoire this time around.

2. As David Goldstein notes, there's no comparing this primary with the previous primary in 2004, in which voters had to choose a party, not any old candidate. The best comparison is between this primary and the general election of 2004. Provisionally, I agree with him that this is a "straw poll" for Gregoire, and that her win is a genuine win. In other words, since voters were free to choose any candidate, just as they can in the general election, the predictive power of the "top two" primary is considerably stronger than some, like David Postman of the Seattle Times, have claimed, even if Gregoire still isn't a sure thing.

3. Considering #1 above, and the natural incumbent advantage, and the fact that Gregoire's people are probably concerned that their candidate didn't top 50%, I'd predict that this primary motivates and mobilizes Democrats. Watch for a flurry of spending and campaigning, even more than last time, to secure Gregoire's lead.

4. Terry Bergeson has to feel great that she outpolled Randy Dorn. She has to be nervous, though, that "anybody but Bergeson" was the clear winner. If even David Blomstrom could siphon 4% of the vote, the electorate is clearly displeased by the current administration. Whether Dorn can rally all the opposition, though, remains to be seen. Blomstrom's probably going to call me a media whore no matter what, but I wasn't horribly impressed by Dorn's approach and his sketchy past--and partly due to Blomstrom's own efforts to raise tough questions about Dorn's past. Dorn seemed like the least worst option. I miss Rich Semler.

Washington state primary predictions

1. For Superintendent of Public Instruction, Randy Dorn will outpoll Terry Bergeson.
2. David Blomstrom, despite finishing fifth, will live to run another day.
3. Turnout will be lower than expected.
4. For Governor, Dino Rossi will trail Chris Gregoire, 47-49 (the remaining 4% split among the others).
5. For Congress, Darcy Burner will outpoll Dave Reichert.
6. No one on either of these lists will win.
7. Washington state's servers will crash as the punditocrats hit "refresh" on their election results screens, over and over until their fingers bleed, while the rest of the world watches Olympic beach volleyball.
8. Democracy will survive another primary.

If It's Good for the Goose....

Per the Spokesman-Review, Governor Gregoire is considering having state employees switch over to a 4-day workweek. That doesn't include teachers, but it's interesting to think about all the same.

How would teaching be impacted if your district switched to 4 longer days a week?

The Seattle Times on Career and Technical Education

The recent state budget commits nearly $100 million to expand and refresh CTE programs around the state, which I think is the way things should be--people in the trades can earn just as much money as those who have gone the college --> professional route, and I don't think that we honor those career choices nearly enough.

The Seattle Times has a good overview of what the new CTE programs look like and how they could change with this new influx of cash. It's a good investment by the state.

Gregoire passes end-of-course exams

I'm still a little surprised that she signed a bill to gut the Math WASL, replacing it with end-of-course tests (described earlier). The WASL's been such a fixture on the landscape for so long, and Gregoire had previously been so adamant about preserving high standards.

But no: no more Math WASL.

In 2013, students will have a choice: Pass the math WASL, or two end-of-course exams. In some districts, those exams will be given at the end of Algebra I and Geometry I. In districts that mix those two subjects into "integrated" math classes, there will be end-of-course exams in Integrated Math I and II.

In 2014, the math WASL is scheduled to end all together.

A bill that would have dumped the WASL in favor of end-of-course exams also passed last year, but Gregoire vetoed it, in part because she thought there were too many unanswered questions, said Judy Hartmann, her executive policy adviser for K-12 education.

Since then, however, the state Board of Education commissioned a study that looked at end-of-course exams in other states and concluded that both the math WASL and end-of-course exams can do a good job of assessing students' math skill.

And before you say anything: yes, I realize the title is ambiguous. It's on purpose.

Dino Rossi on the WEA Ad Campaign

Because I am fairly unbalanced, here's a post from Sound Politics criticizing the WEA for their recent attack ads on Dino Rossi, and here's video from the man himself defending the decision:

The Governor Takes a Question

Blog neighbor David Goldstein of Horse's Ass is also a KIRO radio personality; his own show was sadly cancelled recently, but this week he's been tabbed to sit in for Dave Ross. The first hour of the February 27th show has an interview with Governor Gregoire, and she actually takes a question on the 1% COLA for teachers. Interesting stuff.

The Agenda Lives!

After the Governor’s budget came out it wasn’t looking like the two prongs of the WEA agenda (compensation and class size) were going to get much traction in this session. I shared that I don’t think that Governor Gregoire has to do much for us teachers this session, because her eyes are on the gubernatorial election this coming November and the “She spends too much!” charge from Rossi sticks.

One of the early bills filed, though, is a good one: House Bill 2458 would be the first step towards getting a 17:1 ratio in grades K-3. It has 27 co-sponsors, including lead education Republican Skip Priest, who is joined from his caucus by Mike Armstrong and Larry Haler. Another co-sponsor is Fred Jarrett, who recently made news by leaving the Republicans to become a part of the majority. The interesting piece will be when the numbers come out, so we can see just how much it will cost, but this is a nice start worth keeping an eye on.

educational legislation: 2007 House Bills in review

In 2007, regional media types paid all kinds of attention to the fate of various Washington State educational laws. Joint Resolution 4204, which passed by a Gregoire-thin margin to allow simple majorities for levies, was probably the best-known, while HB 2079 was the most controversial. But lots more were passed. Here are the highlights from the House's year in educational legislation. (I've focused on the elementary and secondary level, with a few postsecondary bills thrown in there as they relate to high school instruction. If I've missed one, let me know.)



Kevin's Law: ESHB 1050
IEP students must be allowed to walk in a grad ceremony with their peers, even if all they receive at the time is a "Certificate of Attendance."


Completing High School at a Community College: HB 1051
The most concise summary comes from Governor Gregoire's partial veto:

Sections 1 through 8 of this bill provide for the development of two pilot programs at community or technical colleges. The programs are intended to support certain students as they work to meet the State's academic standards in reading, writing, mathematics or science. For these students, demonstrating proficiency in one or more of these subjects is the final step in meeting their high school graduation requirements and obtaining a high school diploma. The legislation outlines the student eligibility and program criteria, authorizes the financial support, waives student tuition and fees, and provides for a study of the program's results in two years' time.

Section 9 of the bill creates and recognizes a new state certificate for high school students who do not meet the requirements for a high school diploma, the Certificate of Academic Completion (Certificate). The Certificate may be conferred by school districts to students who meet all state and local requirements for graduation with the exception of passage of one or more of the high school assessments in reading, writing and mathematics. Our students are working very hard to achieve the skills necessary for success in their endeavors beyond high school. By creating the Certificate of Academic Completion we will be sending a message to these students that they do not need basic skills required for the high school diploma. This is wrong.

Get Students Involved: HB 1052
This little bill provides greater access for middle and high school students to the Legislative Advisory Council, plus grants for students to participate in civic education competitions such as Model UN.


Postsecondary Opportunities: HB 1096
Globalization, according to the legislature, requires need-based grants for workers to gain certification or skills training in "high demand occupations" from community or technical colleges.


Book Savings For All: HB 1224
Community colleges were added to the ranks of institutions that must pursue policies that keep book and material costs down, or, at the very least, make options and alternatives publicly known.


Cash for Computers: HB 1280
If I understand this correctly, this bill allows districts to pay for major technology upgrades out of existing "capital projects" levies, instead of having to run a special techno-levy. (Another minor bill, HB 2357, would allow districts to use timber money for capital projects, too.)


Service Credit for ESAs: HB 1432
Might as well quote the bill itself:

Beginning in the 2007-08 school year, the calculation of years of service for occupational therapists, physical therapists, speech-language pathologists, audiologists, nurses, social workers, counselors, and psychologists regulated under Title 18 RCW may include experience in schools and other nonschool positions as occupational therapists, physical therapists, speech-language pathologists, audiologists, nurses, social workers, counselors, or psychologists. The calculation shall be that one year of service in a nonschool position counts as one year of service for purposes of this chapter, up to a limit of two years of nonschool service.

It's only for the salary schedule; retirement counts only school service.


Dealing With the Dropout Problem: HB 1573

Sections 1 through 7 of this bill provide for the development and implementation of a grant program that, through collaborative school district, family and community partnerships and services, support vulnerable students who are at risk of dropping out of middle or high school. The grant program will be called the Building Bridges Program.

This is perhaps the most ambitious attempt the state has made at reducing the dropout rate. I still see this as the problem at the high school level, come low or high WASL.


Defining a Counselor: HB 1670
Up until this year, for all legal intents and purposes, school counselors didn't exist. Now they do.


Agency Shop Fees Clarified: HB 2079
10 + 10 - 10 = 10. Now, which 10 is left? This bill says: not yours, shop fee payer, that the Supreme Court may be mollified. Whew. That was a dire emergency.


Add a Little Spice: HB 2154
Now ESD board members will come up for election in odd, rather than even, years. That oughtta bring out the vote.


Bonus Bonus: HB 2262
Become certified by the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards, collect $5,000--or more, if you teach in an impoverished district. For me, this was the incentive that tipped the scales away from ProCert to NBPTS. Apparently, a lot of other teachers feel the same way.


Investing in the Common Schools: HB 2396
On the same day she signed the Rainy Day Fund into law, Gregoire also allowed the state to invest its permanent common school fund in equities, in hopes that it would earn at a rate at least equal to inflation.


Killing Gainsharing: HB 2391
On that same day, gainsharing died, and teachers mourned.


Let's Have a Poet Laureate: HB 1279
Why not? By the way, it's Samuel Green.

The Governor Stiffs the WEA

Alternate Title: Oh No She Di’n’t! No, really, she didn’t.

The two issues that the WEA has decided to push in the coming legislative session are class size and compensation. “Governor Gregoire is with us,” was the conventional wisdom. “She talked about our two issues at her town hall meeting, and she’ll sign what comes to her desk.”

The last part may be true, it may not be true, only time will tell. When she released her budget on Tuesday the Governor had a powerful opportunity to signal her support for the WEA agenda, and she did anything but.

The seven line items in her supplemental education budget, in order of cost:

Increase teacher salaries: $31,200,000. A .8% increase, which would bring the COLA for 2008-2009 up to 3.6%. Not bad at all—it would be the envy of many, really—but it’s half of what we’ll be asking for.

Maintain and improve the current assessment system: $17,300,000. This section deserves to be parsed hard.

The Superintendent of Public Instruction will develop tests that teachers can use in their classrooms to identify student learning needs. These tests will give more immediate and targeted information to teachers anytime during the school year. Having this information readily available to teachers will allow many of the current annual assessments to be shortened.

This troubles me.

We already have assessments that can be used at any time of the school year to measure where kids are. The DIBELS come right to mind, or the tests available from AIMS Web, or any of the 100 different fluency assessments that can be correlated with the Hasbrouck fluency table, or STAR Reading, or STAR Math, or (especially!) the NWEA. OSPI doesn’t need to “develop” anything; it would be a replication of existing efforts and a waste of money.

And really, does anyone believe that having more assessments available will shorten the current assessments (read: WASL) that we already have? This sounds an awful lot like it’s just one more thing, and it’s troubling to me that Gregoire would misread what teachers are asking for to such a staggering degree.

I’ve got a rant worked up about how many teachers are feeling overwhelmed by what the job asks for today. This idea would not help that, at all.

Keeping students and others safe on college and university campuses, $14,300,000. This is clearly and unapologetically a response to what happened at Virginia Tech this spring, but that’s OK. The college that I watch the most is Eastern, and they’ve made some great steps in upgrading their communications network to get information out to students. I wish that SVC Alum was still blogging, because he did some great writing about events there this spring.

Serve the first class of students of U of Washington – North Sound Campus, $1,100,000. There’s still some who would tell you that this campus isn’t necessary, but here it comes. This is to pay for the first group of students to come through, which will include 30 in nursing and 30 in teacher education. I’d suggest that we might not need yet another teacher education program in the state; I’m wondering why they chose that as a direction to start with.

Improve child-care safety, $435,000. Pays for five folks at the Department of Early Learning to work on redoing licensing for child care centers.

Provide services for visually impaired library patrons, $341,000. To pay for more talking books and Braille services. As the father of a deaf child, I’m all for it.

Boost achievement for English Language Learners, $250,000. Pilot program to integrate ELL and job prep training.

Adjust K-12 student enrollment, -$9,300,000. Yes, that’s negative. Enrollment statewide is going down, and this is what they figure to save by having less FTEs.

The total bill: $55,626,000.

Mainstream media coverage here, here, and here. The gist is that the Republicans are calling her new fiscally conservative streak either Rossi inspired or too little, too late.

And now, pure partisan political opinion.

Christine doesn’t have to do diddly-squat for teachers this session, because when Dino Rossi is the one on the other side there really isn’t much of a choice. Rossi shat the bed with teachers when he lead the drive to cut the I-732 COLA in 2003, and the trial balloon that he’s floating about merit pay isn’t going to play well with many. Your average teacher can’t support Dino Rossi, because Dino Rossi doesn’t have much to say to support your average teacher.

(Sidebar to Mr. Rossi: Education plays in Washington. Always has, always will. If you make an educated, reasonable, sensible education proposal, you'll will over a lot of people. If you run on platitudes, you'll not get the traction you could.)

So really, it’s not a surprise that Christine didn’t give the WEA everything they could ever hope for in her budget proposal, because she doesn’t have to. She can stand on what she’s already done—student spending is way up, and we did get a great raise this year and next—do nothing this session, and as she campaigns she can play the fiscally responsible card.

This election, we need Christine more than Christine needs us. There’s a lot that we’re going to do for her, because there’s a lot that she can do for us given four more years. That’s not a good or bad thing; it’s just one of those things that we have to do and acknowledge. For thoughts on how close this election could be, see Joni Balter’s column in the December 20th Seattle Times.

It’s going to be a session to watch.


Update: On the December 20th edition of Inside Olympia with the affable Dave Ammons it was shared that Dr. Bergeson was asking for "hundreds of millions" of dollars in additional spending here in the short session. Doesn't look good for her, either.

Governor Gregoire in Education Week

The July 18th edition of Education Week has an article on how governors across the country are using their power to streamline the education systems in their states, particularly the divide between K-12 and college. For example,

In Washington state, Gov. Gregoire created a 13-member P-20 council to evaluate public education from prekindergarten through graduate school and to hold schools at all levels accountable. At least 30 states have launched councils or initiatives to foster collaboration across the different levels of education, according to the Denver-based Education Commission of the States.

So while some suspect (perhaps rightly) that the P-20 Council will be just another thing that doesn’t mean much, I think there is some comfort in knowing that other states are doing the same thing. If they can be productive with it, perhaps we will be too.