Bergeson's last "state of education" address

"Mend it, don't end it."

I wonder if Bergeson is actually a little glad to be done. Her successor, after all, has to do all the hard work of fixing her mistakes, as well as repairing the funding system she inherited and did little to change.

But I hear a committee is looking into it.

the post-Bergeson future of the WASL

Dick Lilly, on the future of the WASL:

The door is now open to change the type of test from one that is based on a particular educational philosophy (the ultimate problem with the WASL and most tests of its ilk) to one that is content-based. At root, what’s wrong with the WASL is that it is designed in response to the dominant educational philosophy of the past 40 or so years — the “student-centered,” “discovery” learning that de-emphasizes content knowledge in favor of critical thinking. That's a short-hand description and a lot can be said about this approach, but what it amounts to is the contention that you can make profound decisions while looking at a spreadsheet in which every cell is blank.

To get away from this style of testing, Dorn should switch immediately at the high school level to the SAT subject tests (formerly the SAT IIs). These are good if not excellent content tests, as are the advanced placement (AP) tests. Such tests would provide a stunningly clear picture of what our high school graduates know.

Randy Dorn defeats Bergeson

The Seattle Times--and Bergeson's camp--think it's too close to call.

In the race for the state schools chief, Terry Bergeson was disappointed to be trailing challenger Randy Dorn but was not ready to give up.

Given the number of ballots yet to be counted, "Friday is about the earliest we could make a reasonable decision," said Alex Hays, her campaign consultant.

I'm going out on a thick mathematical limb to say that Randy Dorn will be your next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Here's why.

The counties where Bergeson holds a lead have about 135,000 outstanding votes. Bergeson, overall, trails Dorn by about 35,000. So, she'd either have to win a ridiculously high majority in the counties she's already winning (over 66%) and hold steady elsewhere, or win a solid majority in those counties, and majorly turn around the trends in all the others. That would include King, which is slightly Dornish at 50.4% (293,000 votes left), and Snohomish, which is strong for Dorn at 54.5% (with 100,000 votes left). Snohomish alone wipes out any potential advantage from the smaller counties where Bergeson leads.

Looking at the overall picture, she needs about 53% of the remaining ballots--706,000 in all--to win, and barely. It's just not going to happen.

Mark my words: Dorn is it.

Update 5:30 Wouldn't you know it, Bergeson has conceded a day earlier than her staff predicted. Could it have been due to the astute mathematical analysis found on this blog?

No.

Anyhow, adios, WASL. What will replace thee?

Bergeson trailing; Gregoire lead seems solid

This is a bit of a surprise to me: even though not-Bergeson won the primary, I was never sure that not-Bergesons would line up for Randy Dorn. Turns out they have.

However, with the most populous county still tabulating results, and with a slight lead for Bergeson in that county, she may still eke out a win.

In the other widely-watched race, Christine Gregoire seems to have locked up a victory over Dino Rossi. Snohomish and King counties, the bulk of the outstanding votes, are solid Gregoire.

the state of Washington education in two sentences

OSPI's Jennifer Priddy:

“I have other bad news to share with you,” she said. “I don’t think it’s disputed that the state is underfunding basic education.”

1. Lots of bad news.
2. An underfunded system.

Are those going to be the final grades of the Bergeson era?

lesser of two WASLs

The News-Tribune's Peter Callaghan explains why Randy Dorn isn't quite the candidate WASL foes hoped for. Which is no surprise, really; if Semler hadn't dropped out, Dorn wouldn't even be in the race. He was hardly anyone's first choice.

video voter's guide: Bergeson vs. Dorn

Watch Bergeson defend her record and tell of her plan to, among other things, reform education at the national level. Watch Dorn go into attack mode, especially when it comes to the WASL.

It takes 11 minutes of your time.

no WASL boost for Bergeson

If you're a teacher, you probably already knew what others saw only today: that, statewide, WASL scores were either down or up only slightly, the most notable exception in the 10th grade writing exam.

The results in some other grades improved, especially in grade 5, where the passage rate in reading rose to 75.3 percent, up 3.4 percentage points from last year. And more of this fall's incoming seniors have already passed both reading and writing on the WASL than their counterparts had a year ago.

How many more? About 0.5 percent in 10th reading, and 2.3% in writing. Math declined roughly a percentage point. Science, which yet counts for naught, saw slightly higher scores--39.7% passing versus 36.4% in 2007. And in the lower grades:

But the results in grades 4 and 7, which declined more than the other scores went up, are causing consternation for Bergeson and others. About 72 percent of fourth-graders passed the reading section of the WASL, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous year. In math, 53.4 percent of students passed, down 4.7 percentage points. In seventh grade, reading scores declined nearly 6 percentage points, to 62.8 percent passing, and about half of the students passed math, down 4.3 percentage points from last year.

Bergeson has already exculpated the test, saying that "Something is happening with the kids."

WASL fatigue? Mad Cow disease? iPoditis?

At any rate, look for Randy Dorn to harp on the essentially flat test scores over the past few goes-round as evidence of stagnation, and look for Bergeson to fire back that OSPI is already working on fixes, including truncated tests for tykes.

the predictive value of the 2008 Washington State primary

Somewhat silly predictions aside, it's time to look at the results of the primary. A few observations.

1. Voter turnout was way below average in King County--around 20%, compared to 27%+ statewide--which may have artificially inflated Rossi's overall performance. Rossi's camp is probably praying this trend continues into the general election, since King County went 60% for Gregoire this time around.

2. As David Goldstein notes, there's no comparing this primary with the previous primary in 2004, in which voters had to choose a party, not any old candidate. The best comparison is between this primary and the general election of 2004. Provisionally, I agree with him that this is a "straw poll" for Gregoire, and that her win is a genuine win. In other words, since voters were free to choose any candidate, just as they can in the general election, the predictive power of the "top two" primary is considerably stronger than some, like David Postman of the Seattle Times, have claimed, even if Gregoire still isn't a sure thing.

3. Considering #1 above, and the natural incumbent advantage, and the fact that Gregoire's people are probably concerned that their candidate didn't top 50%, I'd predict that this primary motivates and mobilizes Democrats. Watch for a flurry of spending and campaigning, even more than last time, to secure Gregoire's lead.

4. Terry Bergeson has to feel great that she outpolled Randy Dorn. She has to be nervous, though, that "anybody but Bergeson" was the clear winner. If even David Blomstrom could siphon 4% of the vote, the electorate is clearly displeased by the current administration. Whether Dorn can rally all the opposition, though, remains to be seen. Blomstrom's probably going to call me a media whore no matter what, but I wasn't horribly impressed by Dorn's approach and his sketchy past--and partly due to Blomstrom's own efforts to raise tough questions about Dorn's past. Dorn seemed like the least worst option. I miss Rich Semler.

Washington state primary predictions

1. For Superintendent of Public Instruction, Randy Dorn will outpoll Terry Bergeson.
2. David Blomstrom, despite finishing fifth, will live to run another day.
3. Turnout will be lower than expected.
4. For Governor, Dino Rossi will trail Chris Gregoire, 47-49 (the remaining 4% split among the others).
5. For Congress, Darcy Burner will outpoll Dave Reichert.
6. No one on either of these lists will win.
7. Washington state's servers will crash as the punditocrats hit "refresh" on their election results screens, over and over until their fingers bleed, while the rest of the world watches Olympic beach volleyball.
8. Democracy will survive another primary.

Dorn Outpolling Bergeson?

Buried in this Politicker Washington story about the tight Gregoire/Rossi race was this rather startling tidbit about the OSPI contest:

The same poll asked voters about the superintendent of public instruction race. Respondents chose Randy Dorn 43 percent of the time, compared with incumbent Terry Bergeson at 32 percent. 16 percent were undecided and 9 percent chose other.

Given that Dorn's campaign started late, and that Bergeson is a 12 year incumbent, for him to be up 11 points in any poll seems like a small miracle.

I didn't think Dorn had it in him; the winds of change may be blowing harder than anyone could have anticipated.

Bergeson fails the WASL

Actually, not really. Well, sort of.

Out of three questions given to Bergeson, the answer sheet posted on The Stranger showed that she didn’t answer any of the three questions correctly....

Bergeson's campaign manager told KIRO 7 that The Stranger surprised Bergeson with the questions, which she had trouble seeing, because she didn't have her glasses with her.

That is... a lame excuse.

2008 OSPI Summer Institute

OSPI had its Summer Institute in Tacoma this past week. In previous years, there was more than one Institute; however, with the professional development associated with the new math standards, money was funneled toward that end.

Terry Bergeson spoke both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Here are a few highlights from what she shared:

• The State Board of Education (SBE) is preparing some recommendations regarding graduation requirements (Core 24) for the 2009 legislative session. As part of this package, funding needs will be identified. If the legislature does not make the necessary financial commitment, SBE will not move forward with its recommendations. In other words, there will be no unfunded mandates for schools.
• Speaking of funding, Terry has been working with the Basic Education Task Force to shape reform in this area. Details were not available, but three key areas were identified. First, the formula for foundation support (transportation, teacher pay, instructional materials...) needs to change. There also needs to be identified funding for student programs and supporting educators. Stay tuned for more info in the fall. Terry is very keen on doing something about the need to match our resources with our values for schools.
  
• The full math standards (k - 12) have now been approved and preliminary results regarding the three curricula for each school level (elementary, middle, high) will be available mid-August. Information on supplemental materials will be available at some point in the near future. Terry is also asking for a budget package to support schools who will need to purchase new materials.
• The high school dropout rate in Washington has been ~21% over the last four years. Indications are that the rate will be about the same for the Class of 2008, even with all of the new graduation requirements. It appears that graduation rates will be improving in the next few years. Ninth grade is a pivotal year, and the rate has already changed from 5.1% to 3.7%. We are getting more students to the finish line---and with a more meaningful diploma in their hands.
• Native American students have the lowest graduation rate: only 48.9% are finishing high school (about 1500 kids). Asian/Pacific Islanders have the highest graduation rate with 76.4% completing high school. The average of all groups is 72.5%. This includes students who either finish early or finish late.

Considering all of the upcoming changes in math and science, possible credit requirements for graduation, funding needs (in a time of recession), and NCLB backlash, the next legislative session should prove to be a critical one for Washington schools. Hang on for a wild ride.

David Goldstein on the OSPI Race

Blog neighbor David Goldstein of Horse's Ass covered the contest between Randy Dorn and Terry Bergeson during the most recent Podcasting Liberally show. The OSPI piece is about 46 minutes in; apparently at a 37th legislative district meeting this week Representative Sharon Tomiko-Santos spoke to recommend the district endorse Dorn; she then laced into Bergeson, with the good Doctor sitting right there in the room with her.

I had a nice conversation this week via email with a friend who works closely with the legislature, and he brought up something that I've been thinking about as the OSPI race has evolved: the level of disrespect directed from legislators to Terry is troubling. She's made her mistakes, sure, but the level of vitriol really seems pretty awful between elected officials. I don't know what to read into the whole thing, but it feels like there's something there.

The Parts Become the Whole

This morning, on the last day of school, one of the parapros comes into my room and drops off a flyer about Randy Dorn. She'd volunteered at the State Democratic Convention here in Spokane, where Dorn was endorsed by the state Democratic party; she mentioned too that she was angry at Bergeson because of some maneuver she'd tried to keep Dorn from getting said endorsement.

Just now I read a blog post from the News Tribune covering the convention, and they mention a fight over whether the party should even be making recommendations in non-partisan races.

Then add in this from David Postman of the Seattle Times:

I ran into Randy Dorn, the former Democratic lawmaker running for superintendent of public instruction, and he said the party's executive committee endorsed him today. He says that will make it easier for him to win an endorsement from the Washington Education Association.

And finally consider this piece, which comes from an email that I received:

Despite a last minute attempt by Terry Bergeson to avoid the
embarrassment of not getting the party's endorsement for the first time in her political career, the State Democratic Party also declared it was time for a change at OSPI.

From the looks of it Terry worked hard to get the endorsement for herself, and when that didn't happen she did all she could to keep it from going to Dorn. She's a pro when it comes to this game of politics, and the effort that she's expending makes me believe that she thinks she might be in some jeopardy.

It could be a more interesting summer than I thought.

Big Announcement Coming From Terry Bergeson

...on the 10th grade WASL scores and how this impacts graduation, this Tuesday, June 3rd at 10:00 a.m. News brief from OSPI here; link to TV Washington here where you'll be able to watch the press conference live.

It should provide some good blog fodder.

Terry Bergeson—Underpaid?

Surfing around I came across this spreadsheet from the Washington Citizens’ Commission on Salaries for Elected Officials which shows that there are 110 superintendents in Washington who have a higher base salary than Dr. Bergeson, our Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Only making low six figures is such a drag.

Rich Semler Quits OSPI Race

The Tri-Cities Herald has the story of how Dr. Semler is quitting the race because of health concerns involving his wife, Ginny. Political blogger Chris Mulick has additional commentary here; you can also listen to his last radio interview as a candidate, which is the post right before this one.

This is a shocker. He addressed the WEA Rep Assembly last week, talked to the State PTA the week before that, and seemed to be good to go the distance. Semler dropping out of the race leaves only PSE Executive Director Randy Dorn as a serious candidate; a candidate whose business website touts his experience as an entertaining motivational speaker. If you dig deeper his bona fides look good, but with three months to go until the primary can he get the message out effectively enough to take this race to a general election?

Could any other candidate join the race today and still be able to get enough of a statewide profile to make a difference?

I doubt it. I think that Terry Bergeson just won the OSPI race by default.

Rich Semler sounds good on the radio box

I caught Rich Semler's appearance [mp3, 20:00 in] on the Dori Monson Show (Frank Shiers filling in) on KIRO this afternoon, and was impressed by his good humor, quick wit, and overall amiableness. I liked how Semler stressed the difference between being anti-WASL and anti-assessment. We can use less expensive, just as reliable instruments to get the results we need.

In an important interchange, Shiers asked Semler how he'd reform the WASL. A few steps:

1. Smarter use of multiple choice.
2. Get it back to teachers in 2-3 days.
3. 2-3 hour test, instead of days.
4. Testing complex thinking without taking 12-14 questions per student.
5. "Mime" systems like Delaware's.

It didn't help so much that Shiers, who's otherwise well-versed in educational issues, wasn't aware that Terry Bergeson is actually in the running, which perfectly illustrates the primary problem Semler faces. The Superintendent of Public Instruction just doesn't register on the average voter's radar.

If Semler can overcome that hurdle--and here, the ongoing publicity efforts by the WEA should help--he has a decent shot at an incumbent whose popular support, such as it is, weakens daily.

Is Loin-girding Really Necessary?

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has published an article alluding to a Battle Brewing Over the WASL, but after reading it, I'm not convinced that they've picked the right foe. A good piece of the article is about growing WEA dissatisfaction with state supe Terry Bergeson.

What the teachers' union doesn't seem to understand is that testing is not Bergeson's choice. Sure, we could use some assessment different from the WASL, but even if Terry wasn't in that office we would still have state tests. It's a federal requirement via NCLB. If the union is so irritated with testing, then they need to complain to those who can actually do something about it. Shooting the messenger will accomplish nothing.

The second problem with the PI article is that it misses the difference between testing in and of itself...and how the information from the tests is used. The test really isn't the issue. It's the fact that it's tied to graduation rates and other consequences that people have a problem with.

If the WEA and others are really interested in picking a fight, perhaps they should step back for a moment and think about what the real problem is and who they should ride against in battle.