close a few loopholes and balance the budget?

$53 billion in tax loopholes offer a tantalizing option for Governor Gregoire: raising taxes without technically raising taxes.

If state lawmakers wanted to raise money by closing tax exemptions, there are 567 to choose from. Taken together, the tax breaks cut $53 billion in potential revenues that the state might have received and $45 million more to local governments.

Of those exemptions, 147 of have been added to the tax rolls since the 2001 legislative session.

Of the grand total, 158 were exemptions to the retail sales and use taxes. These include exemptions on sales of food, medicines and the like, which are worth $30 billion in the 2007-09 budget cycle, according to the Department of Revenue's Tax Exemptions 2008 guide. One hundred and three others are property-tax exemptions worth $9 billion.

Of course, every loophole has a lobbyist, meaning that the legislature, until now, has closed hardly any of 'em.

Most tax-repeal recommendations from 2007 were ignored by the Legislature. Those included elimination of a $2 million break for horse racing and $2 million for club membership dues and fees. Also ignored was a recommendation to re-examine a $47 million break given to nonprofit hospitals and $17 million to nonsectarian organizations.

Lawmakers did manage to get rid of one exemption in 2007. That was a temporary tax break for beef producers enacted after the mad-cow disease scare a few years ago, and lawmakers did not extend its life.

Anyhow, The Olympian predicts a shocking budget recommendation from the Governor to match this week's Arctic Blast.

She is scheduled to announce a deep-cutting budget proposal Thursday that could lop $1 billion from K-12 schools, cut jobs or reduce the hours for many of Washington's 110,000 state employees, and shear away big parts of the social safety net.

Gregoire swore off tax increases while on the campaign trail this year, and the recently re-elected Democrat has shown no sign of relenting on that point — even with a budget shortfall she hints could hit $6 billion for the 2009-11 cycle. Even she says it will be "ugly" and that she will hate it.

How long until we're on a four-day school week?

A Program We Can't Afford: The State Funded Internship for Principals

Recently, when the Office of Financial Management released their Priorities of Government report detailing what they thought should and should not be funded in the coming legislative session, one of the lowest priority items for education spending was the state funded Education Leadership Intern Program which provides a grant for paid release days for aspiring principals and superintendents to step out of the classroom and spend time working on their internships.

To my mind, cutting the program is the right thing to do when we're looking at a $6 billion dollar budget hole. There's no evidence that I've seen that Washington State has a principals shortage; similarly, I've yet to hear of a district unable to find a superintendent. Sure, it only cost slightly more than $1.4 million dollars in the last bienium, but that's not really the point--if we're going to be looking at every program in an honest way, and if the Priorities of Government is to mean anything, then there's an awful lot more that should avoid the axe before the Internship Program.

Trick is, that hasn't stopped OSPI from posting the application for next year's grant program, even though the grant program isn't statuatory and could go away any time. The Association of Washington School Principals acknowledges this truth on their website, saying that the grant applications will be considered "null and void" should the program not be funded, but at the same time they've made it one of their legislative priorities for the coming session.

This seems like an easy cut. I kind of hate to see it go, since I got one of those grants last year, but it's the right thing to do.

A Peek at Where the Budget Could Go

This letter from the Office of Financial Management came out the week of Thanksgiving. It instructs the various state agencies on additional cuts they need to make for this fiscal year -- OSPI takes a better than $12.5 million dollar hit -- but it doesn't touch K-12. Don't read anything major into that, because a lot of the K-12 spending isn't discretionary in the same way that health care or postgraduate education is; this interview on Inside Olympia with Victor Moore, the fellow who wrote the above letter, explains why.

The Solution to the Education Budget Crisis!

Governor Gregoire and Superintendent Dorn can thank this guy:

Tom Farber gives a lot of tests. He's a calculus teacher, after all.
So when administrators at Rancho Bernardo, his suburban San Diego high school, announced the district was cutting spending on supplies by nearly a third, Farber had a problem. At 3 cents a page, his tests would cost more than $500 a year. His copying budget: $316. But he wanted to give students enough practice for the big tests they'll face in the spring, such as the Advanced Placement exam.

"Tough times call for tough actions," he says. So he started selling ads on his test papers: $10 for a quiz, $20 for a chapter test, $30 for a semester final.

San Diego magazine and The San Diego Union-Tribune featured his plan just before Thanksgiving, and Farber came home from a few days out of town to 75 e-mail requests for ads. So far, he has collected $350. His semester final is sold out.

As a first grade teacher I can easily see how this could be brought down to my grade level:

"What letter is this, Johnny?"
"P!"
"And what does P stand for...?"
"P'Zone, available only from Pizza Hut!"
"Good boy! Here's a coupon."

The branding opportunities abound. Yay!

How Crazy Are We?

Plenty crazy, according to the Seattle Times:

Almost one in five young American adults has a personality disorder that interferes with everyday life, and even more abuse alcohol or drugs, researchers reported Monday in the most extensive study of its kind.

The disorders include problems such as obsessive or compulsive tendencies and anti-social behavior that can sometimes lead to violence. The study also found that fewer than 25 percent of college-aged Americans with mental problems get treatment.

One expert said personality disorders may be overdiagnosed. But others said the results were not surprising since previous, less rigorous evidence has suggested mental problems are common on college campuses and elsewhere.

I'm reminded of something I once read about from the world of art regarding the style of a certain era, wherein they would paint children as being little adults, the notion being that's all the kids really were. I see a faint echo of that here; by dressing up college kids as mentally ill, you're ignoring the fact that they're, well, college kids. Narcissistic, impulsive, compulsive, obsessive, and overconsumptive, but college kids nonetheless.

I think, too, that if you cast your net too wide you're doing a real disservice to those who actually need the help.

Bergeson's last "state of education" address

"Mend it, don't end it."

I wonder if Bergeson is actually a little glad to be done. Her successor, after all, has to do all the hard work of fixing her mistakes, as well as repairing the funding system she inherited and did little to change.

But I hear a committee is looking into it.

Two Pieces of Special Ed Case Law

From the Tacoma News-Tribune:

The Puyallup School District has won a court case involving a student whose father has been picketing the district over special-education practices.

Administrative Law Judge Cindy Burdue rejected some two dozen claims by Bernie and Denise Dalien, who alleged the district failed to meet the educational needs of their 17-year-old son, Colton, and failed to keep other students from harassing him.

...

Colton has several conditions including Landau Kleffner syndrome, a rare form of epilepsy affecting his ability to process sound, which in turn hinders his ability to speak and learn through verbal instruction. He can speak only in short, simple sentences and is sensitive to background noises.

Colton tests at the primary grade level in math and reading, but his parents believe he has the capacity to learn more if he received more visual instruction appropriate for his disability. Bernie Dalien recently picketed Puyallup district headquarters and various schools over special-education students picking up trash and materials, allegedly without their parents’ knowledge.

From the October 29th issue of Education Week:

The US Supreme Court last week refused to hear the appeal of a Minnesota family in a case about the burden of proof in legal disputes over special education.

The appeal came from the parent of a child with multiple disabilities who ended up in administrative proceedings over the child's services under the federal Individuals with Disabilities Education Act.

At issue was whetehr the parent or the state of Minnesota would have the burden of proof in the proceedings. In a 2005 opinion known as Schaffer v. Weast, the Supreme Court held that where state law was silent on the issue, the burden of persuasion in special education cases lies with the party who brought the case. But the justices stopped short of deciding which rule would apply in states that assign the burden of proof in such proceedings by law, such as Minnesota, which places the burden on school districts in most instances.

Students with IEPs have rights. Even when rights cost money, students still have those rights. I wonder, as the father of a daughter with multiple disabilities, whether some districts will take a closer look at the IEPs and see if those rights can't be done cheaper.

I'm starting to learn about the very nascent stages of the IEP process. My daughter turns 3 next August, which means she moves out of the Spokane County Infant-Toddler Network caseload and into the school system. In March we're going to have a transition meeting to talk about the services she's getting, and then we'll all work together to craft the IEP. She's getting physical therapy to deal with how the brain scarring has affected her balance, her physical therapist thinks the occupational therapist needs to take another look at her, and (because of her 80% hearing loss) she's pretty much a guarantee to be in speech for quite some time. My wife and I have been talking about wanting to see her go to the HOPE School in Spokane, which is a special program at WSU-Riverpoint especially for deaf and hard of hearing toddlers, but that would involve transportation, which costs, which might be something the district fights.

It's going to be interesting; I'll keep you informed along the way.

I Look Forward to Making the First Graders Call Me "Dr. Teacher"

Cleaning out my inbox I realized that I hadn't passed along the news from Washington State University that they have a new Doctoral specialization in Teacher Leadership that comes more from the "Let's think big thoughts about schools!" side and less from the "You're going to be a principal!" side. It sounds like fun, actually. You can find more information here.

Did Teachers Win the Election for Gregoire?

Probably not, but they did get a shoutout from Kelly Evans, Gregoire's campaign manager:

Women’s groups, the environmental community, labor organizations, the education community – everyone was focused and took nothing for granted. And we saw the results in our polling. Four weeks before the election, we were losing public school parents by 11 points – two weeks prior, we were winning by a point. Same is true for union households, a move from +12 to +27 in just three weeks. Add this to the voices of Native Americans, children’s and health care advocates, leaders from communities of color, veterans’ organizations and law enforcement groups all organizing and communicating about Gov. Gregoire’s record of results for the people of Washington.

The WEA-Eastern affiliate office in Spokane had a great, great phonebanking operation set up that turned out nearly 18,000 phone calls for the Gregoire campaign, and we were only one of dozens across the state. Dino only won Spokane County by 8,000 votes, which wasn't nearly the margin he needed to make up for the hole he was facing in King County, where Gregoire won by 230,000. The road to office may run through King, but you've got to run a statewide campaign, too, and the Governor did that very effectively.

(via Brad Shannon at the Olympian)

the post-Bergeson future of the WASL

Dick Lilly, on the future of the WASL:

The door is now open to change the type of test from one that is based on a particular educational philosophy (the ultimate problem with the WASL and most tests of its ilk) to one that is content-based. At root, what’s wrong with the WASL is that it is designed in response to the dominant educational philosophy of the past 40 or so years — the “student-centered,” “discovery” learning that de-emphasizes content knowledge in favor of critical thinking. That's a short-hand description and a lot can be said about this approach, but what it amounts to is the contention that you can make profound decisions while looking at a spreadsheet in which every cell is blank.

To get away from this style of testing, Dorn should switch immediately at the high school level to the SAT subject tests (formerly the SAT IIs). These are good if not excellent content tests, as are the advanced placement (AP) tests. Such tests would provide a stunningly clear picture of what our high school graduates know.

Randy Dorn defeats Bergeson

The Seattle Times--and Bergeson's camp--think it's too close to call.

In the race for the state schools chief, Terry Bergeson was disappointed to be trailing challenger Randy Dorn but was not ready to give up.

Given the number of ballots yet to be counted, "Friday is about the earliest we could make a reasonable decision," said Alex Hays, her campaign consultant.

I'm going out on a thick mathematical limb to say that Randy Dorn will be your next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Here's why.

The counties where Bergeson holds a lead have about 135,000 outstanding votes. Bergeson, overall, trails Dorn by about 35,000. So, she'd either have to win a ridiculously high majority in the counties she's already winning (over 66%) and hold steady elsewhere, or win a solid majority in those counties, and majorly turn around the trends in all the others. That would include King, which is slightly Dornish at 50.4% (293,000 votes left), and Snohomish, which is strong for Dorn at 54.5% (with 100,000 votes left). Snohomish alone wipes out any potential advantage from the smaller counties where Bergeson leads.

Looking at the overall picture, she needs about 53% of the remaining ballots--706,000 in all--to win, and barely. It's just not going to happen.

Mark my words: Dorn is it.

Update 5:30 Wouldn't you know it, Bergeson has conceded a day earlier than her staff predicted. Could it have been due to the astute mathematical analysis found on this blog?

No.

Anyhow, adios, WASL. What will replace thee?

Bergeson trailing; Gregoire lead seems solid

This is a bit of a surprise to me: even though not-Bergeson won the primary, I was never sure that not-Bergesons would line up for Randy Dorn. Turns out they have.

However, with the most populous county still tabulating results, and with a slight lead for Bergeson in that county, she may still eke out a win.

In the other widely-watched race, Christine Gregoire seems to have locked up a victory over Dino Rossi. Snohomish and King counties, the bulk of the outstanding votes, are solid Gregoire.

the state of Washington education in two sentences

OSPI's Jennifer Priddy:

“I have other bad news to share with you,” she said. “I don’t think it’s disputed that the state is underfunding basic education.”

1. Lots of bad news.
2. An underfunded system.

Are those going to be the final grades of the Bergeson era?

parents and the dropout rate

Contention one: Parents are key to high school success.
Contention two: Kids are less likely to graduate than their parents.
Satirical conclusion: Parents are secretly undermining their kids' chances.

In all seriousness, it's good to see major media reporting on the dropout rate, and why it, not standardized testing, is the central educational problem of our time.

The Bluebird of Happiness Comes for a Visit

From yesterday's New York Times: Next Victim of Economic Turmoil: Your Salary.

On the other hand, from USA Today: Financial Sector's Loss Could Spell Gains for Teaching. For the teaching force, they mean--the article forecasts a herd of out-of-work financial types falling into teaching.

And speaking of YOUR salary, check out this article from the Vancouver Columbian on what the Basic Ed Finance Task Force here in Washington is saying about teachers salaries.

how much ya bank?

If you're a teacher, you probably know where you stand on the salary schedule. But what about your teacher friends? Or what if you're a curious civilian? Teacher pay, after all, is a matter of public record, right?

In steps The Olympian.

School district employee salaries are the latest addition to The Olympian's online Data Center, which also lists pay for other public employees, restaurant health inspection results, property transfers and other public information.

All of the databases are based on information available to the public and will be updated regularly.

The school salary database was obtained through a public-records request of the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction. It includes data from all of the school districts in Washington.

The Olympian's salary database can be searched by last name or first name, as well as by district and position.

I checked it out and the data, although one year distant, is otherwise solid. Surprisingly, "not enough" isn't included in my listing.

[SNL's classic "How Much Ya Bench?" transcript found here.]

lesser of two WASLs

The News-Tribune's Peter Callaghan explains why Randy Dorn isn't quite the candidate WASL foes hoped for. Which is no surprise, really; if Semler hadn't dropped out, Dorn wouldn't even be in the race. He was hardly anyone's first choice.

what's the lesson here?

Consider this year's Seattle Mariners, proud owners of this abysmal factoid:

First team with a $100 million payroll and 100 losses. With one bonus loss for good measure.

You make the inference.

Where the Single Salary Schedule Came From

The New Yorker recently ran an article on pay disrimination that Alex Russo of This Week in Education linked to the teacher salary schedule that controls what teachers make based on years of experience and qualifications while ignoring student achievement, evaluations, and the like. I've also heard before that the salary schedule was a response to the Spoils System that was once so pervasive.

Maybe it's time has come, maybe it hasn't; that's for folks above my pay grade to say. What needs to be understood, though, is that the salary schedule didn't arise out of a vacuum--it had a reason for being.

Damn You, Mulick!

This would be an absolute disaster for school district budget planning:

“We’ll probably be going into a lot of overtime,” Haler said. “I’ve been talking with legislators on both sides of the aisle. We don’t expect to get out until the end of June.”

End of June?(!)

Could it be that budget talks have broken down before they’ve even started?

Big problems call for a thorough discussion, but by the Gods that woud be a six month legislative session. By the middle of May I would expect the caucuses to be taking up arms and fighting each other in a running, bloody battle down Capitol Way.

Thanks for giving me one more thing to worry about, Chris Mulick of the Tri-Cities Herald.

video voter's guide: Bergeson vs. Dorn

Watch Bergeson defend her record and tell of her plan to, among other things, reform education at the national level. Watch Dorn go into attack mode, especially when it comes to the WASL.

It takes 11 minutes of your time.